Feldman: Inside the numbersHow's your bracket coming along? Still iffy about those 8 versus 9 games and need to know if everyone is picking North Carolina to win it all? With the release of the brackets Sunday night, ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge has been flooded with users hoping that they know the right strategy to win the $10,000. However, everyone needs a little help from their friends, so without further ado, here are some interesting facts for you to take into consideration when filling out your bracket. All data as of Tuesday, March 18 at 10:45 a.m.
1. ESPN.com users are loving North Carolina. More than one third of ESPN.com users think the University of North Carolina will win it all. The Tar Heels' most likely foe in the finals, UCLA, still has 17 percent of users rooting it on. The other two No. 1 seeds, Kansas and Memphis, are predicted by 14 percent and 12 percent, respectively, to win the national championship. The top No. 2 seed, Tennessee, is predicted by only 3.97 percent to win it all. Amazingly, 77 percent of users think a No. 1 seed will win the tournament this year. On another note for all the ACC fans, users predicted North Carolina to face Duke in the finals just about 0.04 percent of the time.
2. What's going on with Xavier? With no surprises in store for the four No. 1 seeds, each are predicted by more than 99 percent of users to advance to the second round. The No. 2 seeds all advance by more than 98 percent, but then things get a little more interesting. Xavier, a 3-seed, had a record of 27-6 this year and plays the 14 seed Georgia (17-16). ESPN.com users seem to think Xavier's seeding might be a little bit high. Predicted to win by 83.46 percent of users, Xavier is behind each of the other No. 3 seeds and three of the No. 4 seeds. Xavier barely edges out 7-seed Butler by 0.82 percent and 5-seed Michigan State by 1.65 percent. On Monday, both Butler and MSU were ahead of Xavier, but with the influx of brackets, this trend seems to be changing.
3. Everyone's favorite upset: The 7-10 game
Besides the aforementioned Butler (at 82 percent), only No. 7 West Virginia is seen as a clear favorite with its matchup against Arizona. More than 67 percent of ESPN.com users predict that West Virginia will win its first-round matchup, but the other two 7-10 matchups (Gonzaga versus Davidson and Miami (Fla.) versus St. Mary's) are giving the edge to the 10-seeds. Although it is still very close, compared to a 51-49 percent advantage for the 10-seeds Monday, the gap has widened. Davidson has increased its edge to 51.66 percent while St. Mary's is approaching the 53 percent mark at 52.89 percent over Miami. So what can we take away from this information? Users seem to feel that besides Butler, the other 7/10 games are places where they can make up a game with an upset pick. It's a gamble, but as I'll discuss later, not many of these teams are predicted to move on past the second round.
4. So you're saying there's a chance Believe it or not, some ESPN.com users believe that a team that hasn't even made it into the first round is predicted to beat North Carolina. In fact, at this point, your bracket doesn't even have the name of UNC's opponent! Either way, Coppin State or Mount Saint Mary's are being given a 0.37 percent chance to beat UNC and a .09 percent chance to win the tournament! I guess if a team can beat the bracket's top seed, it can beat anyone.
5. Faith in Pittsburgh No. 4 Pittsburgh seems to be gaining a lot of respect among ESPN.com users. Almost 94 percent of users believe that Pitt will move on to the second round, but what's more interesting is they are picked above every No. 3 seed in the tournament when it comes to making the Final Four and finals. In the Elite Eight, only Wisconsin is given more respect, but by only 0.01 percent who expect the 3-seed to hold on more often than Pittsburgh. Although the Panthers are predicted by 4.14 percent to make it to the Final Four, only 1.41 percent believe they will win the entire tournament. There is also a noticeable difference in the projections for Georgetown, the team right above Pittsburgh. Georgetown is the lowest No. 2 seed projected to win it all, receiving the confidence of 3.21 percent.
6. Kansas State In the closest 6 versus 11 matchup, Kansas State is predicted to win 36.93 percent of the time against USC. This is down more than 2 percent from Monday. However, in the second round, users believe that if Kansas State can make it, it'll have a better chance than all the 8-, 9- and 10-seeds to advance. At about 12 percent, Kansas State is predicted to advance more often than 6-seed Oklahoma, and 7-seeds Miami and Gonzaga. Although it is a small percentage, users believe that Kansas State is the upset pick in the second round against either Wisconsin or CS-Fullerton.
7. Unlucky 16
and 15 As Cal State Fullerton gets 3.37 percent of users predicting it will advance, here are a list of the teams that are receiving the lowest percentages to make it to the round of 32. No surprise, these lucky teams have to face the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the first round.
(16) Play-In Winner -- 0.37 percent Note that the percentage of every team on this list went up compared to where they stood in Monday's edition.
8. Quick hits
• Surprising seeds predicted to win it all: (8) Indiana -- 0.20 percent, (11) Kentucky -- 0.17 percent, (14) Georgia -- 0.12 percent.
• Highest seed not given a chance to win: (4) Washington State -- 0.11 percent
• From dominant to out: Butler, predicted to win by more than 82 percent in the first round, drops to 17.60 percent in the second round with a potential matchup with Tennessee or American.
• Texas is given the highest chance to make it to the Final Four out of all the No. 2 seeds at 13.18 percent. The second No. 2 seed, Tennessee, is predicted to make it by only 8.38 percent of users. However, users feel more faithful to Tennessee in the finals as the Vols are predicted to win 3.97 percent of the time, 0.18 percent more than what Texas is receiving.
9. Good to be 8 Although the statistics Monday gave three of the four 8-seeds the nod to move onto the second round, Tuesday's results show that all four teams are predicted to beat their respective 9-seed opponent. Indiana (62.03 percent), Mississippi State (61.39), UNLV (50.49) and Brigham Young (50.42) are all predicted to move on, but none of them are at more than 3.33 percent to make it to the Sweet 16.
Last thought To be honest, I didn't think trends would change all that much from day to day. With no surprise, I was wrong. I felt that UNC would lead the predictions all the way through, but it seems that North Carolina's following has depleted in the second round by more than 2 percent. Although it is still more than 95 percent, this round is the only one in which users think Kansas and UCLA have a better chance of moving on. Looking at the first round, users are more confident than ever that there will not be an upset of the 1- or 2-seeds, but as soon as we hit the top 3-seed and Wisconsin, there seems to be just a hint of doubt. Confidence drops even further when you hit the 5-seeds, where users think that they are only deserving of an 80 percent chance to win, or less! Clemson, the lowest-predicted 5-seed is receiving only 76.06 percent of the vote. As I mentioned on Monday, it seems users are picking pretty straight forward. Besides the small percentage difference in the usual closest-seeded matchups (8/9 and 7/10), so far, we really aren't seeing the 5/12 and 6/11 matchups being upset-driven. As Keith Lipscomb noted in his bracket bits column, we know the upset will likely occur, but users seem to be extremely confident that the higher seeds will be the ones moving on. Andrew Feldman is the editorial producer for ESPN.com Fantasy. |
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